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Two days remaining.

England's opening match in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The issue in {day-night matches|